Questioning my own motives

I am little the wiser listening to the conflicting analyses of the nuclear power station situation in Japan’s earthquake zone. One expert commentator leaves me feeling chilled to the bone that we were on the edge of a tragedy. Another commentator explains how this is nothing even close to a Chernobyl situation and we should be reassured by the successful layers of backup that have enabled us to stay well clear of a disaster  in the face of an earthquake followed by a tsunami.

Which to believe?

Like climate change, I cannot be an expert in these deeply complex …

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It’s really a guessing game

Saturday morning, I read this quote in an article about the Japanese Earthquake in the Washington Post from Dave Wald of the US Geological Survey.

“It’s really just a kind of guessing game, and Mother Nature never really puts up with those guessing games”.

The article also referred to detailed measurement and analysis of the impact of the earthquake that was absolutely predicted to occur, but elsewhere in Japan.

I immediately thought of the book Black Swan by Nassim Taleb that I read recently – it is not just earthquakes where we get caught by these uncertainties – it is in every …

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